Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +550 MER -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +16 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -11.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -9.9 (-6.1) | 146.3 (-22.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -10.2 (-5.8) | 149.6 (-25.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -10.3 (-5.7) | 147.0 (-23.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -9.7 (-6.3) | 146.7 (-22.7) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MER 87 – 78 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#349) | 0.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#333) | -0.03 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#337) | -0.11 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#344) | 0.533 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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