Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MER -213 CIT +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MER -1.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.6 (+6.4) | 138.3 (+21.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -2.1 (+5.9) | 137.5 (+22.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.6 (+6.4) | 140.2 (+19.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.7 (+6.3) | 140.7 (+19.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MER 87 – 78 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#222) | -4.4 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#195) | -1.14 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#207) | -1.27 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#214) | 0.429 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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