Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +265 MER -330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +10 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -6.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -6.3 (-3.7) | 143.8 (-29.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -6.7 (-3.3) | 144.3 (-30.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -6.6 (-3.4) | 149.1 (-35.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -6.9 (-3.1) | 145.5 (-31.5) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MER 87 – 78 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-12 | 7-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L24 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -15.7 (#356) | -5.8 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.97 (#361) | -0.94 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.36 (#361) | -1.43 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.350 (#362) | 0.444 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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