Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MER -1400 CIT +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +34 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MER -13.2 (+20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -10.6 (+23.4) | 143.0 (-17.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -10.2 (+23.8) | 145.6 (-19.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -10.5 (+23.5) | 142.2 (-16.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -10.8 (+23.2) | 143.5 (-17.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MER 87 – 78 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 0-18 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-12 |
| Away | 5-11 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L24 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#240) | -14.5 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#221) | -3.98 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#238) | -4.36 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#231) | 0.352 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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