Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MER -250 CIT +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | MER -3.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.4 (+6.6) | 135.5 (+29.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -3.8 (+5.2) | 133.5 (+31.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.4 (+6.6) | 135.2 (+29.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.6 (+6.4) | 135.8 (+29.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#251) | -4.2 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#228) | -1.19 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#247) | -1.32 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#243) | 0.430 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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