Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UML -125 UVM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -4.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -3.6 (-10.6) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -3.5 (-10.5) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -3.9 (-10.9) | 139.9 (-2.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -3.1 (-10.1) | 137.7 (-0.7) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVM 66 – 64 UML |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UVM 85 – 61 UML |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UVM 67 – 63 UML |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UVM 66 – 61 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 15-1 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 10-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#98) | 1.02 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#101) | 1.25 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.543 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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