I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Sun Belt Conference · Holmes Convocation Center · January 25, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread APP -16.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Over
Money APP -2000 / GASO +1300
Model Predictions
Spread Total APP win
Actual APP +10 158 Won
Massey APP -20.7 (-10.7) — —
Massey Totals — 141.1 (+16.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 98% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ APP -14.6 (-4.6) 145.0 (+13.0) 89% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML APP -16.2 (-6.2) 139.0 (+19.0) 90% ✓
Baseline ML APP -17.9 (-7.9) 140.2 (+17.8) 89% ✓
Baseline Plus ML APP -17.9 (-7.9) 140.6 (+17.4) 89% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 APP 89 – 74 GASO
Feb 12, 2026 APP 81 – 65 GASO
Feb 26, 2025 GASO 61 – 59 APP
Feb 20, 2025 APP 79 – 74 GASO
Mar 9, 2024 APP 85 – 80 GASO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings APP GASO
Overall 27-7 9-24
Conference 16-2 8-10
Home 15-0 6-7
Away 8-5 2-14
Neutral 4-2 1-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 77.1 73.3
Avg Pts Against 68.7 79.2
Massey 7.3 (#76) -9.7 (#319)
Bradley-Terry 1.38 (#78) -1.72 (#318)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.42 (#89) -1.87 (#306)
RPI 0.567 (#76) 0.394 (#336)
Shooting & Four Factors APP GASO
FG% 47.1% 41.7%
3PT% 30.1% 35.9%
REB / G 39.8 32.7
OREB / G 10.1 10.1
AST / TO 1.37 0.79
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.3% 50.4%
TOV% 15.5% 19.6%
ORB% 28.7% 27.8%
FT Rate 19.0% 19.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.4% 53.1%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 17.3%
DRB% 72.7% 64.6%
Opp FT Rate 14.9% 28.2%

Game Analysis

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