Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | APP -2000 GASO +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | APP -20.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -14.6 (-4.6) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -16.2 (-6.2) | 139.0 (+19.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -17.9 (-7.9) | 140.2 (+17.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -17.9 (-7.9) | 140.6 (+17.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#76) | -9.7 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#78) | -1.72 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#89) | -1.87 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#76) | 0.394 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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