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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–9 on winners spread MAE 8.7 34 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Kentucky @ South Carolina	-2.8	158.3	40%	62–79	✗
Texas @ Oklahoma	+7.3	142.2	75%	75–60	✗
Duke @ Louisville	-15.0	154.3	9%	83–69	✓
Wisconsin @ Minnesota	-5.3	143.7	31%	61–59	✓
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech	-2.7	144.0	40%	72–64	✓
Florida State @ Syracuse	+4.8	147.0	67%	85–69	✗
West Virginia @ UCF	+11.9	138.8	86%	59–72	✓
UAB @ Charlotte	+8.2	139.1	77%	70–76	✓
Ohio State @ Nebraska	+1.7	146.3	56%	69–83	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne	+0.9	140.8	53%	50–54	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Massachusetts	+3.0	152.4	61%	78–77	✗
Loyola Chicago @ VCU	+6.2	133.3	71%	67–74	✓
Ball State @ Buffalo	-1.6	141.7	44%	87–59	✓
Kent State @ Bowling Green	+2.8	151.0	60%	90–84	✗
Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan	-0.9	141.8	47%	55–71	✗
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan	+10.2	146.8	82%	56–73	✓
Ohio @ Akron	+10.9	146.5	84%	58–67	✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa	+12.5	147.7	87%	63–70	✓
Belmont @ Illinois State	-0.2	143.4	49%	67–77	✗
Toledo @ Northern Illinois	-3.1	162.1	39%	89–73	✓
Xavier @ Creighton	+8.7	147.0	79%	78–85	✓
Michigan @ Purdue	+19.2	157.4	96%	67–99	✓
Houston @ BYU	-1.7	131.4	44%	75–68	✓
San Diego @ Portland	-0.3	155.5	49%	85–81	✓
Boston College @ Virginia Tech	+6.6	148.9	73%	71–76	✓
Wyoming @ San Diego State	+19.0	143.9	96%	65–81	✓
Missouri @ Texas A&M	+11.3	142.3	85%	57–63	✓
TCU @ Oklahoma State	-6.2	148.5	29%	74–69	✓
Boise State @ Fresno State	-10.4	136.0	17%	72–68	✓
Air Force @ UNLV	+14.2	135.4	90%	90–58	✗
East Tennessee State @ VMI	-9.1	148.6	20%	74–73	✓
Radford @ UNC Asheville	+4.8	145.1	67%	69–81	✓
Providence @ Seton Hall	+2.7	139.5	60%	67–63	✗
LSU @ Georgia	+4.9	149.4	67%	66–68	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.