Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -138 BEL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -0.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -1.2 (+11.2) | 138.0 (+6.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -0.2 (+10.2) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -0.2 (+10.2) | 140.4 (+3.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -0.7 (+9.3) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ILST 81 – 74 BEL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BEL 80 – 69 ILST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | BEL 76 – 63 ILST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ILST 81 – 78 BEL |
| Dec 5, 2024 | BEL 99 – 97 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#228) | 0.2 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#206) | 0.81 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#208) | 0.93 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#222) | 0.555 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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