Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -210 ILST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +2 | 196 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -8.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+38.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -6.5 (-4.5) | 151.6 (+44.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -6.8 (-4.8) | 149.2 (+46.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -5.0 (-3.0) | 150.3 (+45.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -6.0 (-4.0) | 152.8 (+43.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ILST 81 – 74 BEL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BEL 80 – 69 ILST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | BEL 76 – 63 ILST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ILST 81 – 78 BEL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | ILST 77 – 67 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#124) | -1.1 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#113) | -0.55 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#157) | -0.22 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#154) | 0.450 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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