Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -115 ILST -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -0.6 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -0.4 (+13.4) | 149.0 (-10.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -0.1 (+13.1) | 146.3 (-7.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -0.4 (+13.4) | 149.3 (-10.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -0.4 (+13.4) | 148.7 (-9.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ILST 81 – 74 BEL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BEL 80 – 69 ILST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ILST 81 – 78 BEL |
| Dec 5, 2024 | BEL 99 – 97 ILST |
| Jan 24, 2024 | ILST 77 – 67 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#135) | 2.1 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#98) | 0.53 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#114) | 0.51 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#91) | 0.527 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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