Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Belmont Bruins
76 63
FINAL Neutral Conference MVC
Illinois State Redbirds
Missouri Valley Conference · Enterprise Center (Neutral) · March 7, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread BEL -0.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Money BEL -115 / ILST -105
Model Predictions
Spread Total BEL win
Actual BEL +13 139 Won
Massey ILST -0.6 (+13.6)
Massey Totals 158.7 (-19.7)
Bradley-Terry 59%
Weighted B-T 55%
Efficiency Plus ML BEL -0.0 (+13.0) 147.6 (-8.6) 50%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -0.2 (+13.2) 149.6 (-10.6) 52%
Baseline ML ILST -0.3 (+13.3) 148.6 (-9.6) 53%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -0.7 (+13.7) 149.5 (-10.5) 47%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 1, 2026 ILST 8174 BEL
Jan 24, 2026 BEL 8069 ILST
Jan 30, 2025 ILST 8178 BEL
Dec 5, 2024 BEL 9997 ILST
Jan 24, 2024 ILST 7767 BEL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BEL ILST
Overall 22-11 22-14
Conference 13-7 10-10
Home 11-5 12-4
Away 9-4 5-7
Neutral 2-2 5-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 W3
Avg Pts For 78.9 74.9
Avg Pts Against 76.8 72.4
Massey 1.5 (#135) 2.1 (#129)
Bradley-Terry 0.90 (#98) 0.53 (#123)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.72 (#114) 0.51 (#130)
RPI 0.547 (#91) 0.527 (#127)
Shooting & Four Factors BEL ILST
FG% 46.6% 47.7%
3PT% 38.7% 37.6%
REB / G 34.2 31.6
OREB / G 9.7 7.7
AST / TO 1.54 1.36
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.2% 56.6%
TOV% 15.7% 15.9%
ORB% 27.2% 24.7%
FT Rate 18.8% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.4% 54.0%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 16.7%
DRB% 70.1% 75.0%
Opp FT Rate 19.3% 23.6%

Game Analysis

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