Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -245 ILST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -3.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -5.0 (+6.0) | 144.1 (+4.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -3.6 (+7.4) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -4.4 (+6.6) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -4.1 (+6.9) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ILST 81 – 74 BEL |
| Mar 7, 2025 | BEL 76 – 63 ILST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ILST 81 – 78 BEL |
| Dec 5, 2024 | BEL 99 – 97 ILST |
| Jan 24, 2024 | ILST 77 – 67 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-6 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#68) | 8.7 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#67) | 0.61 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#59) | 0.77 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#66) | 0.533 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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