Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +450 ETSU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -9.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -9.0 (+8.0) | 150.1 (-3.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -9.1 (+8.1) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -8.6 (+7.6) | 147.2 (-0.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -8.8 (+7.8) | 147.4 (-0.4) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-10 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-15 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -16.3 (#358) | -3.0 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#357) | -0.35 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.80 (#357) | -0.49 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#355) | 0.489 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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