Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +230 ETSU -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +7 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -5.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -3.6 (-3.4) | 137.5 (-20.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.7 (-1.3) | 138.4 (-21.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -3.3 (-3.7) | 137.9 (-20.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -3.3 (-3.7) | 138.6 (-21.6) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ETSU 82 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#284) | 1.4 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#275) | -0.26 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#247) | -0.19 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#260) | 0.477 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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