Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -2500 VMI +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -17.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -14.3 (-1.3) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -13.9 (-0.9) | 146.6 (+4.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -14.1 (-1.1) | 142.4 (+8.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -13.3 (-0.3) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-4 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-11 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 84.9 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#212) | -16.3 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#185) | -3.49 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#186) | -3.98 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#189) | 0.368 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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