Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -1800 VMI +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -22.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -16.9 (-2.9) | 144.4 (+3.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -15.0 (-1.0) | 145.0 (+3.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -16.3 (-2.3) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -16.4 (-2.4) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ETSU 82 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 1-17 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#113) | -14.8 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#184) | -2.23 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#174) | -2.88 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#189) | 0.399 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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