Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -3000 VMI +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -15.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -12.2 (+2.8) | 144.1 (+8.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -12.1 (+2.9) | 144.2 (+8.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -11.6 (+3.4) | 145.3 (+7.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -11.3 (+3.7) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ETSU 82 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#122) | -8.5 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#217) | -1.90 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#181) | -2.13 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#256) | 0.407 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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