Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | VT -213 BC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | VT -6.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -5.3 (-0.3) | 147.0 (+0.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -6.0 (-1.0) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.6 (-0.6) | 146.3 (+0.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -6.0 (-1.0) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VT 72 – 63 BC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | BC 54 – 36 VT |
| Feb 9, 2023 | BC 82 – 76 VT |
| Dec 21, 2022 | BC 70 – 65 VT |
| Jan 22, 2022 | BC 68 – 63 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#62) | 6.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#58) | 1.21 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#54) | 1.59 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#50) | 0.559 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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