Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BC +105 VT -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +18 | 90 | Won |
| Massey | VT -1.1 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-56.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -0.2 (+17.8) | 143.3 (-53.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.3 (+18.3) | 140.1 (-50.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -0.2 (+18.2) | 143.9 (-53.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -0.3 (+18.3) | 145.9 (-55.9) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VT 72 – 63 BC |
| Jan 24, 2024 | VT 76 – 71 BC |
| Feb 9, 2023 | BC 82 – 76 VT |
| Dec 21, 2022 | BC 70 – 65 VT |
| Jan 22, 2022 | BC 68 – 63 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-9 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#216) | 1.4 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#209) | 0.23 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#222) | 0.07 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#252) | 0.492 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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