Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | VT -7.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -5.2 (+10.2) | 130.6 (+0.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -5.5 (+10.5) | 126.0 (+5.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -6.0 (+11.0) | 131.7 (-0.7) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -6.6 (+11.6) | 132.5 (-1.5) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VT 72 – 63 BC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | BC 54 – 36 VT |
| Jan 24, 2024 | VT 76 – 71 BC |
| Feb 9, 2023 | BC 82 – 76 VT |
| Dec 21, 2022 | BC 70 – 65 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#149) | 11.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#221) | 1.02 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#200) | 1.55 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#275) | 0.546 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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