Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | BC +345 VT -455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | VT -10.2 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -9.7 (+14.7) | 133.5 (+1.5) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -10.3 (+15.3) | 133.4 (+1.6) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -10.4 (+15.4) | 135.2 (-0.2) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -9.3 (+14.3) | 135.2 (-0.2) | 21% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VT 72 – 63 BC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | BC 54 – 36 VT |
| Jan 24, 2024 | VT 76 – 71 BC |
| Feb 9, 2023 | BC 82 – 76 VT |
| Jan 22, 2022 | BC 68 – 63 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#252) | 10.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#224) | 3.22 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#210) | 4.29 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#233) | 0.642 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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