Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -5000 MICH +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +32 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -19.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.7 (+16.3) | 159.8 (+6.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -16.0 (+16.0) | 156.7 (+9.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -17.0 (+15.0) | 155.9 (+10.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -17.7 (+14.3) | 157.3 (+8.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 3-17 |
| Home | 16-0 | 5-10 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 22.5 (#3) | 6.9 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.77 (#1) | 0.44 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.53 (#1) | 1.06 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.702 (#1) | 0.541 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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