Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SYR -167 FSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +16 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SYR -4.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -3.4 (-19.4) | 150.4 (+3.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -3.8 (-19.8) | 144.4 (+9.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -3.8 (-19.8) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -3.3 (-19.3) | 148.4 (+5.6) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | SYR 94 – 86 FSU |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SYR 66 – 62 FSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | FSU 90 – 74 SYR |
| Feb 9, 2023 | SYR 76 – 67 FSU |
| Mar 9, 2022 | SYR 96 – 57 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#79) | 7.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#32) | 1.35 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#36) | 1.71 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#11) | 0.584 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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