Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | FSU +138 SYR -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SYR -3.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -3.0 (-6.0) | 150.2 (-7.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -1.7 (-7.3) | 149.0 (-6.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -2.4 (-6.6) | 149.8 (-6.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -2.6 (-6.4) | 150.3 (-7.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | SYR 94 – 86 FSU |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SYR 66 – 62 FSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | FSU 90 – 74 SYR |
| Jan 24, 2024 | FSU 85 – 69 SYR |
| Mar 9, 2022 | SYR 96 – 57 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-11 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#202) | 5.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#211) | 0.75 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#198) | 1.17 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.527 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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