Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -450 SYR +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +16 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -11.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -10.1 (+5.9) | 156.0 (+8.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -10.0 (+6.0) | 155.7 (+8.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -10.2 (+5.8) | 154.0 (+10.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -10.1 (+5.9) | 155.3 (+8.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | SYR 94 – 86 FSU |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SYR 66 – 62 FSU |
| Jan 24, 2024 | FSU 85 – 69 SYR |
| Feb 9, 2023 | SYR 76 – 67 FSU |
| Mar 9, 2022 | SYR 96 – 57 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#71) | 0.7 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#81) | -0.10 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#83) | 0.06 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#72) | 0.508 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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