Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | SYR -245 FSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +8 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -9.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -7.2 (+0.8) | 156.3 (+23.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -9.5 (-1.5) | 150.6 (+29.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -9.4 (-1.4) | 150.7 (+29.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -9.3 (-1.3) | 153.3 (+26.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2025 | SYR 66 – 62 FSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | FSU 90 – 74 SYR |
| Jan 24, 2024 | FSU 85 – 69 SYR |
| Feb 9, 2023 | SYR 76 – 67 FSU |
| Mar 9, 2022 | SYR 96 – 57 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#69) | 3.5 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#71) | 0.05 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#60) | 0.02 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#92) | 0.502 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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