Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -600 AF +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +32 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -14.9 (-46.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -11.6 (-43.6) | 134.9 (+13.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -11.4 (-43.4) | 138.0 (+10.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -11.4 (-43.4) | 138.6 (+9.4) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -10.7 (-42.7) | 135.9 (+12.1) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-5 | 4-12 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#76) | -3.8 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#97) | -0.95 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#89) | -1.08 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#68) | 0.448 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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