Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +700 DUKE -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -14.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -13.4 (-0.6) | 150.6 (+1.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -14.6 (+0.6) | 150.0 (+2.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.1 (-0.9) | 150.0 (+2.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -12.6 (-1.4) | 151.7 (+0.3) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#207) | 15.7 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#272) | 1.84 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#260) | 2.60 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#261) | 0.574 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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