Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -108 DUKE -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +11 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -1.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.2 (-14.2) | 157.4 (-0.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -5.0 (-16.0) | 158.2 (-1.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.3 (-13.3) | 157.9 (-0.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.7 (-13.7) | 158.2 (-1.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 24, 2024 | DUKE 83 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 17-1 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#9) | 23.6 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#32) | 4.33 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#30) | 7.00 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#26) | 0.666 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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