Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -470 LOU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +31 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -7.7 (+23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -9.1 (+21.9) | 154.9 (-19.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -9.1 (+21.9) | 150.8 (-15.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.7 (+22.3) | 151.3 (-16.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.6 (+20.4) | 152.9 (-17.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 24, 2024 | DUKE 83 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 10-1 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 26.1 (#2) | 21.6 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.04 (#4) | 2.60 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.25 (#3) | 3.55 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.686 (#2) | 0.606 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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