Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -270 LOU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -10.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.1 (+2.9) | 142.7 (-7.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -8.8 (+2.2) | 143.4 (-8.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -7.6 (+3.4) | 143.5 (-8.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -7.1 (+3.9) | 143.4 (-8.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 24, 2024 | DUKE 83 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 18-2 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 27.1 (#1) | 16.3 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#4) | 3.12 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.22 (#4) | 3.71 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#3) | 0.613 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.