Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -10000 LOU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +25 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -22.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -19.8 (+5.2) | 154.1 (-11.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -21.1 (+3.9) | 151.7 (-8.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -18.9 (+6.1) | 153.3 (-10.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -20.0 (+5.0) | 152.5 (-9.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Jan 24, 2024 | DUKE 83 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#12) | -1.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#17) | -0.58 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#11) | -0.55 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#23) | 0.446 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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