Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +300 DUKE -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +11 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -7.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -5.0 (-6.0) | 137.5 (+3.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -6.7 (-4.3) | 135.8 (+5.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.2 (-6.8) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.2 (-6.8) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 24, 2024 | DUKE 83 – 69 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 19-1 |
| Home | 14-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 9-2 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#39) | 24.6 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#48) | 2.66 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#34) | 4.38 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#44) | 0.639 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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