Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -213 LUC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -6.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -7.9 (-0.9) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -5.3 (+1.7) | 135.3 (+5.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -5.2 (+1.8) | 135.9 (+5.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -4.6 (+2.4) | 135.2 (+5.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VCU 89 – 75 LUC |
| Mar 15, 2025 | VCU 62 – 55 LUC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VCU 84 – 65 LUC |
| Jan 11, 2023 | VCU 78 – 64 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#94) | 3.1 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#119) | 0.98 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#105) | 0.95 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#120) | 0.550 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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