Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | LUC +210 VCU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +19 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -5.1 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -2.6 (-16.4) | 138.7 (+10.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -5.3 (-13.7) | 137.9 (+11.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -5.4 (-13.6) | 138.7 (+10.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -4.8 (-14.2) | 139.9 (+9.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VCU 89 – 75 LUC |
| Mar 15, 2025 | VCU 62 – 55 LUC |
| Jan 24, 2024 | VCU 74 – 67 LUC |
| Jan 11, 2023 | VCU 78 – 64 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#147) | 9.8 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#150) | 0.75 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | 1.40 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#183) | 0.542 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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