Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | FDU +125 CCSU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +16 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -3.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -2.4 (-13.6) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -3.1 (-12.9) | 144.3 (-8.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -2.7 (-13.3) | 144.4 (-8.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -3.5 (-12.5) | 145.7 (-9.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CCSU 63 – 57 FDU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | FDU 76 – 66 CCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | CCSU 76 – 72 FDU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CCSU 87 – 66 FDU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CCSU 71 – 60 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#325) | -3.3 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#311) | -0.75 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#320) | -1.04 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#310) | 0.455 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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