Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU +100 JXST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | JXST -4.6 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -4.5 (+12.5) | 125.6 (+16.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -4.7 (+12.7) | 122.6 (+19.4) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -4.9 (+12.9) | 124.3 (+17.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -4.4 (+12.4) | 125.2 (+16.8) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JXST 75 – 58 MTSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JXST 70 – 68 MTSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JXST 77 – 63 MTSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MTSU 81 – 64 JXST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JXST 76 – 68 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#307) | -0.4 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#302) | -0.69 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#292) | -0.16 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#322) | 0.469 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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