Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -240 JXST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -5.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -2.4 (+14.6) | 146.1 (-1.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -3.7 (+13.3) | 146.7 (-1.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.8 (+13.2) | 146.9 (-1.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -4.1 (+12.9) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JXST 75 – 58 MTSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JXST 70 – 68 MTSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JXST 77 – 63 MTSU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JXST 76 – 68 MTSU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MTSU 75 – 67 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#113) | 2.0 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#81) | 0.17 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#104) | 0.23 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#45) | 0.522 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 9.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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