Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -163 GAST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -1.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -3.6 (+5.4) | 150.4 (-5.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -1.3 (+7.7) | 148.2 (-3.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -0.5 (+8.5) | 149.4 (-4.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -0.4 (+8.6) | 152.3 (-7.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#238) | -1.9 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#216) | -0.46 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#216) | -0.65 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#209) | 0.484 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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