Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -1400 VAL +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -15.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -12.5 (-6.5) | 134.5 (+9.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -11.1 (-5.1) | 133.9 (+10.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -11.4 (-5.4) | 134.2 (+9.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -11.3 (-5.3) | 134.4 (+9.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | SIU 77 – 68 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 13-5 | 6-11 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#96) | -6.2 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#137) | -1.17 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#116) | -1.02 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#151) | 0.449 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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