Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -345 VAL +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -11.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -7.2 (-2.2) | 145.8 (-0.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -8.9 (-3.9) | 141.7 (+3.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -9.3 (-4.3) | 143.7 (+1.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -8.6 (-3.6) | 144.8 (+0.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | SIU 77 – 68 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#110) | -3.0 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#196) | -1.04 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#173) | -1.19 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#180) | 0.434 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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