Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +400 SIU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +9 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -11.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -11.3 (+2.3) | 131.9 (+13.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -11.9 (+2.9) | 133.1 (+11.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -10.3 (+1.3) | 134.6 (+10.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -10.2 (+1.2) | 133.1 (+11.9) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 13-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#308) | 6.9 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#313) | 0.82 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#299) | 1.47 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#305) | 0.535 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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