Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -105 SIU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -2.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.3 (-4.3) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.3 (-3.7) | 146.2 (+7.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -0.3 (-4.3) | 146.8 (+7.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -0.1 (-4.1) | 147.1 (+6.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | SIU 77 – 68 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#217) | -2.0 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#218) | -0.40 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#227) | -0.38 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#242) | 0.502 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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