Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -135 SIU +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -0.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -1.0 (+5.0) | 140.7 (-8.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -1.0 (+5.0) | 137.5 (-5.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -0.7 (+5.3) | 136.5 (-4.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.9 (+5.1) | 138.8 (-6.8) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | SIU 77 – 68 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#170) | 2.8 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#204) | -0.30 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#195) | -0.45 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#235) | 0.503 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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