Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -225 VAL +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -6.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -4.5 (-8.5) | 145.4 (+16.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -6.8 (-10.8) | 141.5 (+20.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -5.3 (-9.3) | 143.6 (+18.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -4.9 (-8.9) | 144.2 (+17.8) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | SIU 77 – 68 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#183) | -4.2 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#183) | -0.67 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#182) | -0.96 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#171) | 0.451 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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