Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | WCU -110 UNCG +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -4.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -3.3 (-6.3) | 133.7 (+33.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -2.3 (-5.3) | 133.0 (+34.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -2.8 (-5.8) | 132.7 (+34.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -3.2 (-6.2) | 133.7 (+33.3) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 10-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#116) | 2.5 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#81) | 1.09 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#92) | 1.28 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#90) | 0.565 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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