Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG +105 WCU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | WCU -0.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -0.2 (+3.2) | 155.2 (+3.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.1 (+1.9) | 153.1 (+5.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -0.3 (+3.3) | 154.2 (+4.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -0.1 (+3.1) | 155.4 (+3.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UNCG 85 – 82 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#319) | -7.4 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#315) | -1.25 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#307) | -1.84 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#310) | 0.467 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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