Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -188 WCU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -2.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.9 (+5.1) | 141.8 (-5.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.1 (+3.9) | 140.7 (-4.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.5 (+4.5) | 141.5 (-5.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.9 (+5.1) | 142.6 (-6.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UNCG 85 – 82 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#145) | 2.8 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#98) | 0.86 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#114) | 0.92 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#106) | 0.539 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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