Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | WCU -238 UNCG +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +14 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | WCU -5.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -3.7 (+10.3) | 155.4 (+12.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -3.0 (+11.0) | 155.2 (+12.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -3.8 (+10.2) | 153.3 (+14.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -3.9 (+10.1) | 154.7 (+13.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UNCG 85 – 82 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#267) | -9.3 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#276) | -1.15 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#284) | -1.59 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#236) | 0.457 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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