Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | WCU +240 UNCG -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +28 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -12.3 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -13.6 (-14.4) | 134.5 (+3.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -11.5 (-16.5) | 138.1 (-0.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -11.9 (-16.1) | 135.7 (+2.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -13.1 (-14.9) | 136.9 (+1.1) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | UNCG 85 – 82 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#350) | 2.3 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#340) | 0.61 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#341) | 0.52 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#299) | 0.546 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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